By: Joshua Plaschkes

The recent breakdown in relations between Israel and Turkey is a truly disturbing revelation amidst the ongoing turmoil of the Arab Spring. Turkey has traditionally been one of Israel’s strongest regional allies and has been incredibly supportive of the West, a rarity in the Middle East. In fact, Turkey was the first Muslim majority nation to recognize Israel’s existence in 1949. Yet, Turkey’s Prime Minister, Tayyip Erdogan, appears to be taking the countries foreign policy in a different direction. Erdogan’s statements, threats, and actions all point to an increasingly confrontational Turkey, one that will continue to use its stance against Israel as a means for elevating itself as the new regional power in the Middle East.

One of Erdogan’s main points of contention with Israel is the flotilla raid that occurred in May of last year. The Mavi Marmara, the largest of six flotillas headed toward Gaza, was boarded by Israeli commandos after failing to stop upon the Israeli militaries request. Unlike the other five flotillas, the Mavi Marmara was the only flotilla that refused to stop. Though a UN inquiry concluded that it is unclear whether the commandos were accosted first or whether the commandos opened fire first, an eye witness account from Israeli newspaper reporter, Ron Yishai, states that as each Israeli soldier rappelled down, the passengers began attacking with clubs, bats, metal rods, knives and other weapons. The commandos began by using paintball guns and stun grenades, but after an Israeli soldier was stabbed by a passenger and thrown from the upper to the lower deck, the commandos received permission to use their firearms. Much of this account is supported by video of the incident. The aftermath left nine Turkish passengers dead and several wounded. Erdogan has demanded that Israel apologize for the incident, pay compensation, and eliminate the embargo on Gaza. Turkey’s report of the incident, which was drawn up by government officials, accused Israeli commandos of “excessive, brutal and pre-meditated” conduct. It concluded that the commandos actions onboard the Mavi Marmara was “unlawful” and breached human rights. Israel has refused to apologize on the grounds that the Israeli commandos were acting in self defense. An Israeli inquiry, headed by Judge Jacob Turkel, consisting of five Israeli members and two international observers, stated that the actions of the navy and Israel’s blockade of Gaza were legal under international law, but offered some criticism for the planning of the military operation. It also referred to “the regrettable consequences of the loss of human life and physical injuries.” As a result of this impasse, Turkey has cut its military ties to Israel and expelled the Israeli ambassador. In addition, Erdogan has taken a significant step towards escalation when he stated in September that future flotilla shipments to Gaza will be escorted by Turkish naval warships. This could easily lead to a military confrontation that was unthinkable just a few months ago. Also, Erdogan has stated that Turkey plans to challenge Israel’s Gaza blockade in the International Criminal Court of Justice (ICJ). In recent interviews and speeches, Erdogan condemns Israel on almost every occasion, questions the amount of lives lost due to terror attacks from Palestinian extremists, and has stated that Israel uses the Holocaust as a tool to be perceived as a victim in the eyes of the international community. These provocative actions and statements shows how much has changed in the relationship between Israel and Turkey under Erdogan‘s leadership. A once stalwart ally and friend has become a confrontational Middle Eastern threat.

Both sides are at fault for allowing the argument to be blown out of proportion. Erdogan fails to consider Israel’s point of view that the Gaza blockade is in response to the shipment of weapons, supplies, and cash to terrorist organizations, such as Hamas, through these flotilla aid ships, which are then used to kill innocent Israeli civilians. In response to the international communities concern over the blockade, Israel now allows almost all consumer goods that have nothing to do with security concerns to enter into the Gaza. Also, Israel offered the Mavi Marmara, as it has done for previous aid flotillas headed for Gaza, to land in an Israeli port where the goods could be inspected and then distributed to Gaza, the offer was rejected. On the other hand, the Israeli government should have come out and apologized for the incident, even if the commandos were acting in self defense and fighting what they saw was a threat to their lives. Which ever side started the provocation, the end result was the loss of nine lives. Losing such a strong strategic ally should not come at the price of failing to offer a formal apology from the Israeli government. Pride may be the cause for a continued deterioration in Israeli-Turkey relations.

Another point of contention that could escalate in the near future is Israel and Turkey’s dispute over the right to drill in an exclusive economic zone in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel recognizes the government of Cyprus’s right to drill in the exclusive economic zone and hopes to source future natural gas in these waters. Yet, Turkey does not recognize the area as Cypriot territorial waters and believes that if they are granted access to drill in the exclusive economic zone, the Turkish Cypriots will be disadvantaged. A fight over gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean is already putting increased strain on the already contentious Israeli-Turkish relationship.

Is Erdogan’s willingness to completely sever ties with Israel based on recent events, or is this a revival of former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser’s pan-Arabism? Erdogan’s foreign policy stance is becoming increasingly populist in nature and seeks to gain the support of the surrounding Arab states. Upon his trip to Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, Erdogan was greeted with cheers, crowds chanting “With United Hands for the Future,” and supporters lining up with posters made in his likeness just to catch a glimpse of the Turkish Prime Minister. With Egypt in turmoil and its future far from certain, a power vacuum has been created for a new nation to take the lead in the Arab world. Although many fear Iran’s attempts to become the regional hegemon, it appears Erdogan is making significant steps to show that Turkey is the future leader for the other Arab nations. By becoming increasingly confrontational towards Israel, Erdogan has garnered significant support from the Arab street and he is now seen as an important voice for Palestinian statehood. His anti-Israel stance has overshadowed his support for dictators such as Libya‘s Moammar Gaddafi, which some suggest is a result of Gaddafi grating Turkish companies $23 billion in construction project contracts, and Syria‘s Bashar al-Assad, who Erdogan thought could be reasoned with diplomatically while Syrian civilians were being murdered at the hands of the Syrian military. All of the nations that Erdogan visited on his trip have recently removed their dictators and are now on the path to creating new forms of government. The Justice and Development Party (AKP), which Erdogan heads, is liked by both Islamists and liberal Arabs because of its ability to allow for Islamists to participate in the political process, while also embracing liberal principles. Erdogan’s popularity, Turkey’s economic successes, and popular form of government, could lead Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and other Middle Eastern nations to copy the Turkish model. Turkey’s increasingly confrontational stance towards Israel will become even more troubling based on the outcome of Egypt’s upcoming parliamentary elections. If Islamic organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood gain significant parliamentary power, Egyptian military and diplomatic ties to Israel will become extremely limited. The combination of a confrontational Turkey and Egypt, the two most powerful nations in the Arab world, has major implications for Israel’s security. This will be the first time in many years that powerful Arab nations align themselves to actively confront Israel. Nasser’s pan-Arabism was a significant ingredient for the three main wars between Israel and its Arab neighbors, and the international community may be seeing a return to this precarious scenario. Lets hope Israel and Turkey can reconcile their differences and diffuse the situation in order to bring about a more peaceful Middle East.