Category Archives: Fiscal policy

America / Debt / Economy / Fiscal Cliff / Fiscal policy / Politics / Tariffs / Taxes / Trade / U.S. Domestic Policy

Recession Risk in 2025: A Weighted Logit Model with Policy Insights

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An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading →

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.
Debt / Economy / Fiscal policy / Trade

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.

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Executive Summary The relationship between fiscal deficits and trade balance in the United States is complex, and the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (REH) suggests two differing opinions on the relationship.  The TDH postulates a positive connection between fiscal deficits and trade balance (net exports) while the REH argues there is no … Continue reading →

Tax / Taxes

The Possible Effects of Pillar Two Taxation on the United States

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Executive Summary  The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD’s) pillar two proposal includes three crucial tax rules intended to work with current tax laws worldwide.  The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) and the Tax Foundation made predictions of the effect on US revenue given the adoption of pillar two both internationally and nationally.  The … Continue reading →

Culture / Economy / Fiscal policy / Politics / Regulation

Unlocking Transparency: The FTC’s Battle Against Hidden Fees

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Executive Summary Deceptive pricing in various industries most evidently in the hotel and ticketing industry, prompted the FTC’ to propose rules to combat hidden fees and protect consumer interests. The proposed Trade Regulation Rule aims to penalize violators, compensate consumers, and enforce transparent pricing. The broad scope of the proposed rule presents intricate challenges across … Continue reading →

America / Economy / Fiscal policy / Politics / Presidency

President Biden and the State of Inflation

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Executive Summary  Last week, President Biden outlined his plan to counter inflation as the rate rises to around 7%  The President placed the blame of inflation on rising prices in a myriad of sectors including motor vehicles, prescription drugs, energy, and childcare  His solutions include programs to cut costs as well as protect wages by … Continue reading →

Economy / Fiscal policy / Tax / Taxes

Tax Cut-Implications for Behavioral Economics

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Richard H. Thaler, professor of behavioral science and economics at the University of Chicago, won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences this year “for his contributions to behavioral economics.” This is a relatively new field that combines the idea of psychology and economics. Standard economic models assume that humans are rational actors. However, behavioral economists … Continue reading →