Executive Summary The national debt is fundamentally a generational issue; running large budget deficits to finance tax cuts or spending increases today places an undue burden on younger and future generations. By borrowing more today, policymakers are effectively promising higher taxes and lower spending on future taxpayers and government beneficiaries; at the very least, younger and future … Continue reading
Category Archives: Economy
Pax Moo-ica: Supply Management and the USMCA
Executive Summary One of the United States’ main goals for the 2026 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review is to open the supply-managed Canadian dairy market. This has been a continuous objective of Washington’s for decades; since 2020, inroads have been achieved, but the scope of such market openings seems unlikely to change in the contemporary geopolitical situation. For these … Continue reading
Economy / Energy / Environment
California’s “Radical” Climate Program: Examining Challenges to the Cap-and-Trade System
On September 19, California Governor Gavin Newsom approved a bill renewing California’s cap-and-trade program until 2045. This renewal comes despite hostility toward state-level clean energy programs from the Trump administration, notably President Trump’s executive order that specifically criticized California’s cap-and-trade program. Continue reading
Debt / Economy / Technology
Stablecoin Issuers as a Growing Class of Treasury Buyers: Implications and Risks
Executive Summary With the passage of the GENIUS Act, which sets a framework for future stablecoin legislation, the growing stablecoin market raises concerns over its impact on U.S. Treasury yields. Studies show that increased demand from stablecoin issuers for short-dated Treasury bills may have a similar influence on yields as a rate cut from the … Continue reading
The Trade-Off Behind the Trade Deficit
Executive Summary President Trump aims to rebalance global trade by imposing tariffs and welcoming a weaker dollar because he views the U.S.’ large trade deficit as evidence of unfair trade practices. However, shrinking the trade deficit will shrink the capital account surplus that balances it, thereby weakening the dollar as foreign investors move away from … Continue reading
‘Golden share’ of U.S. Steel extends president’s reach into the private sector
Executive Summary Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel was blocked by both Biden and Trump until Nippon, a Japanese company, gave the federal government a “golden share” of U.S. Steel. The share gives the executive branch permanent control over U.S. Steel’s board of directors, job relocations, and capital investments. The executive influence over this deal … Continue reading
America / Debt / Economy / Fiscal Cliff / Fiscal policy / Politics / Tariffs / Taxes / Trade / U.S. Domestic Policy
Recession Risk in 2025: A Weighted Logit Model with Policy Insights
An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading
A Drop in Consumer Sentiment: Economic Consequences and Policy Impacts
Executive Summary The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Chair Stephen Miran stated on March 25th he does not believe there is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending in recent years. Miran says this after a 9.76 percent decrease in consumer sentiment from February to March, marking the largest drop since January 2021, … Continue reading
Debt / Economy / Fiscal policy / Trade
The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.
Executive Summary The relationship between fiscal deficits and trade balance in the United States is complex, and the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (REH) suggests two differing opinions on the relationship. The TDH postulates a positive connection between fiscal deficits and trade balance (net exports) while the REH argues there is no … Continue reading
Are the Elderly Hurt More by Inflation? A Glimpse Inside the Housing Market
Executive Summary Recent CPI-U and CPI-E (age 62+) data suggests the elderly have experienced higher CPI growth over the same period, and the heightened rate is likely from a greater weight in the shelter component of CPI which accounts for the housing costs of those who both own and rent their properties. Homebuying trends have … Continue reading
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