Category Archives: Trade

“I Got a Rock”: Policy Gaps in American Critical Minerals Stockpiling 
America / National Security / Trade

“I Got a Rock”: Policy Gaps in American Critical Minerals Stockpiling 

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Executive Summary  Introduction  On April 4th, 2025, China imposed export controls on seven rare earth minerals and associated magnets in response to tariff increases by the United States. In the month these measures were formally in effect, American automakers, defense contractors, and technology firms experienced logistical delays, forced to scale back or even halt production at plants across North America. At the urging of hurt industries, the Trump Administration initiated negotiations in May, culminating in a 90-day tariff … Continue reading →

Pax Moo-ica: Supply Management and the USMCA
Economy / Politics / Tariffs / Trade

Pax Moo-ica: Supply Management and the USMCA

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 Executive Summary  Introduction  On December 17th, 2025, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer outlined Washington’s objectives for the upcoming 2026 USMCA review before Congress. In what has become a predictable aim of the United States, it was Trade Representative Greer’s main agricultural grievance that drew attention from the Canadian media: the expansion of American dairy’s access to the supply-managed Canadian … Continue reading →

Mercosur: An Integration Problem 
Latin America / Tariffs / Trade

Mercosur: An Integration Problem 

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Executive Summary  Introduction   On January 17th, 2026, Mercosur—a South American customs union comprising Argentina, Bolivia (partial-member), Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay—signed a landmark free trade agreement with the European Union. The deal is slated to remove around $4.8 billion in tariffs between the two economic blocs, leading to an estimated 39 percent annual growth in EU exports to Mercosur (from $72 billion in 2024 goods export) and the elimination of EU duties … Continue reading →

The Trade-Off Behind the Trade Deficit 
Economy / Tariffs / Trade

The Trade-Off Behind the Trade Deficit 

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Executive Summary  Introduction  President Trump has long called for the U.S. to impose higher tariffs to reduce the trade deficit, which he has declared a national emergency. His administration announced unprecedented unilateral tariffs to reverse what it alleges are unfair trade practices. This strategy ignores the accounting principle known as the balance of payments: The … Continue reading →

America / Debt / Economy / Fiscal Cliff / Fiscal policy / Politics / Tariffs / Taxes / Trade / U.S. Domestic Policy

Recession Risk in 2025: A Weighted Logit Model with Policy Insights

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An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading →

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.
Debt / Economy / Fiscal policy / Trade

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.

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Executive Summary Introduction Government deficits and the trade balance have seemed to fluctuate in tandem over time. This has given rise to theories connecting the two deficits to explain their relationship. U.S. fiscal deficits have ballooned in recent years, bringing renewed attention to the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and applying it to advanced economies. Modeling … Continue reading →

Economy / Energy / Trade

Supply Shortages, High Prices, and Carbon Emissions: The Result of Tariffs on Chinese EVs

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Executive Summary Introduction In a speech addressing the United Auto Workers (UAW) on November 9, 2023, President Biden accused China of being “determined to dominate the electric vehicle market by using unfair trade practices,” and promising to “not let them.” Neither the specifics of China’s “unfair trade practices” nor a strategy to combat them were explained. Biden … Continue reading →

Economy / Technology / Trade

Big Businesses Ache and Small Businesses Suffer from Digital Protectionism

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Executive Summary Introduction On October 25th, 2023, the USTR announced its withdrawal of WTO e-commerce proposals introduced in 2019 by the Trump administration. The original proposals advocated for the preservation of cross-border data flows, limiting the implementation of tariffs on digital trade. Additionally, they proposed restrictions on data localization and source code transfer requirements. In … Continue reading →

Economy / Foreign Policy / Trade

Trade Barriers and Tariff Schedules: How the United States Risks Chinese Dominance in the Indo-Pacific

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Executive Summary Indo-Pacific Trade Agreements The Indo-Pacific’s premier trade agreement is RCEP, which includes 15 countries spread throughout Southern Asia, Eastern Asia, and Oceania. RCEP is the world’s largest trade agreement on many fronts, boasting a 28 percent share of global goods trade in 2020.  Source: Congressional Research Service RCEP’s primary goal is establishing a deeper … Continue reading →