Category Archives: Trade

“I Got a Rock”: Policy Gaps in American Critical Minerals Stockpiling 
America / National Security / Trade

“I Got a Rock”: Policy Gaps in American Critical Minerals Stockpiling 

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Executive Summary  Throughout 2025 and 2026, China has leveraged its control over critical mineral supply chains, forcing the United States to the negotiating table; the resulting shortages caused disruptions in the production of goods from automobiles to computers.  In February 2026, the Trump Administration inaugurated Project Vault, a critical minerals stockpiling program intended to reduce exposure to foreign-induced supply shocks through storing minerals for civilian use.  Although Project Vault is … Continue reading →

Pax Moo-ica: Supply Management and the USMCA
Economy / Politics / Tariffs / Trade

Pax Moo-ica: Supply Management and the USMCA

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 Executive Summary  One of the United States’ main goals for the 2026 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review is to open the supply-managed Canadian dairy market.  This has been a continuous objective of Washington’s for decades; since 2020, inroads have been achieved, but the scope of such market openings seems unlikely to change in the contemporary geopolitical situation.  For these … Continue reading →

Mercosur: An Integration Problem 
Latin America / Tariffs / Trade

Mercosur: An Integration Problem 

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Executive Summary  Mercosur and the European Union have signed a sweeping free trade agreement twenty-six years in the making; that same month, Argentina signed its own bilateral trade deal with the United States.  Despite the optimism surrounding the EU deal, Mercosur is still hamstrung by institutional limitations and diverging member interests, preventing further integration.  Given this, U.S. trade policymakers are apt to treat Mercosur members as the individual … Continue reading →

Politics / Tariffs / Trade

Betting on Trade: Prediction Markets & Tariff Uncertainty

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Executive Summary:  President Trump’s frequently changing tariffs increased uncertainty for many businesses owners. This uncertainty could potentially damage the economy by reducing investment and new research and development processes.  Polymarkets allow anyone to bet on an outcome by buying a yes share or a no share, with the price of a yes share corresponding to … Continue reading →

America / Debt / Economy / Fiscal Cliff / Fiscal policy / Politics / Tariffs / Taxes / Trade / U.S. Domestic Policy

Recession Risk in 2025: A Weighted Logit Model with Policy Insights

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An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading →

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.
Debt / Economy / Fiscal policy / Trade

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.

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Executive Summary The relationship between fiscal deficits and trade balance in the United States is complex, and the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (REH) suggests two differing opinions on the relationship.  The TDH postulates a positive connection between fiscal deficits and trade balance (net exports) while the REH argues there is no … Continue reading →

Economy / Energy / Trade

Supply Shortages, High Prices, and Carbon Emissions: The Result of Tariffs on Chinese EVs

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Executive Summary Increases to import tariffs on foreign vehicles have been hinted at by President Biden and suggested by the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). While automobile tariffs are often implemented to stimulate sales of domestic vehicles, it is unclear if American manufacturers can meet the increasing demand for electric vehicles (EVs); high tariffs also dramatically … Continue reading →

Economy / Technology / Trade

Big Businesses Ache and Small Businesses Suffer from Digital Protectionism

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Executive Summary The United States Trade Representative (USTR) withdrew its support for World Trade Organization (WTO) proposals that promoted cross-border data flows and restricted requirements for data localization and source code transfers. While the decision has been cited as an effort to maintain sufficient “policy space” and control Big Tech, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) … Continue reading →

Economy / Foreign Policy / Trade

Trade Barriers and Tariff Schedules: How the United States Risks Chinese Dominance in the Indo-Pacific

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Executive Summary While China is reaping the benefits of entering the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – the world’s largest free trade agreement (FTA) – the United States has not established a competitive FTA of its own in the Indo-Pacific.­­­­ RCEP’s tariff schedule aims to reduce tariffs for RCEP nations by approximately 92 percent over … Continue reading →