On September 19, California Governor Gavin Newsom approved a bill renewing California’s cap-and-trade program until 2045. This renewal comes despite hostility toward state-level clean energy programs from the Trump administration, notably President Trump’s executive order that specifically criticized California’s cap-and-trade program. Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction Congress’ recent passage of the GENIUS Act, the first significant regulatory framework for stablecoins, opens the door for increased crossover between traditional finance and cryptocurrency, or decentralized finance. The law sets a framework for future stablecoin regulation and prohibits interest-bearing stablecoins and prevents big tech and retail firms from issuing stablecoins without … Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction President Trump has long called for the U.S. to impose higher tariffs to reduce the trade deficit, which he has declared a national emergency. His administration announced unprecedented unilateral tariffs to reverse what it alleges are unfair trade practices. This strategy ignores the accounting principle known as the balance of payments: The … Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction On June 18, the Japanese firm Nippon Steel finalized a “historic partnership” with U.S. Steel (USS), acquiring the company for nearly $15 billion. This came after years of Biden and then Trump blocking the purchase due to national security concerns. The deal was finally allowed soon after President Trump was promised a … Continue reading
An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) provides research and analyses to the Executive branch to inform policy directives. CEA Chair Stepehen Miran appeared on CNBC on March 25th amid economic uncertainty, stating he does not believe there is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending. Consumer sentiment is tracked in detail by … Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction Government deficits and the trade balance have seemed to fluctuate in tandem over time. This has given rise to theories connecting the two deficits to explain their relationship. U.S. fiscal deficits have ballooned in recent years, bringing renewed attention to the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and applying it to advanced economies. Modeling … Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the change in prices in a typical consumers basket. The elderly tend to consume a different bundle of goods compared to the typical consumer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has introduced an experimental CPI, labeled CPI-E, to determine the relative importance of bundles for … Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) proposed a two-pillar international taxation agreement aimed at taxing digital companies and reducing profit shifting. Pillar two aims to create a minimum international corporate tax of 15% on multinational companies that bring in revenue of over €750m a year ($810 million). This tax can … Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction The Orginisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has proposed and revised an international tax agreement that contains two pillars. Pillar one aims to reallocate taxation of digital multinational companies and multinational companies with intangible assets. Pillar two aims to impose a minimum global tax on multi-national companies, while preventing double taxation. … Continue reading
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