Author Archives: Max Tingom

America / Debt / Economy / Fiscal Cliff / Fiscal policy / Politics / Tariffs / Taxes / Trade / U.S. Domestic Policy

Recession Risk in 2025: A Weighted Logit Model with Policy Insights

Posted on by

An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading →

A Drop in Consumer Sentiment: Economic Consequences and Policy Impacts
America / Economy / Politics / Tariffs / U.S. Domestic Policy

A Drop in Consumer Sentiment: Economic Consequences and Policy Impacts

Posted on by

Executive Summary The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Chair Stephen Miran stated on March 25th he does not believe there is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending in recent years.  Miran says this after a 9.76 percent decrease in consumer sentiment from February to March, marking the largest drop since January 2021, … Continue reading →

Impact of Retail Electricity Deregulation on Consumer Prices: A Difference-in-Difference Approach
Energy / Environmental Regulation / Politics / Regulation / U.S. Domestic Policy

Impact of Retail Electricity Deregulation on Consumer Prices: A Difference-in-Difference Approach

Posted on by

Executive Summary Electricity is a necessary commodity for nearly every person in the United States, and while the delivery process has not changed, deregulation has altered who supplies it.  Historically, electrical markets were vertically integrated and regarded as a natural monopoly, but recent market-oriented reforms have aimed to deregulate and introduce competition to lower both … Continue reading →

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.
Debt / Economy / Fiscal policy / Trade

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.

Posted on by

Executive Summary The relationship between fiscal deficits and trade balance in the United States is complex, and the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (REH) suggests two differing opinions on the relationship.  The TDH postulates a positive connection between fiscal deficits and trade balance (net exports) while the REH argues there is no … Continue reading →

The State of State Backed Insurance
Politics

The State of State Backed Insurance

Posted on by

Executive Summary Insurance of last resort is a program meant to cover individuals living in high-risk areas prone to natural disasters.  These programs are meant to supplement the private market, but overregulation of the private insurance market has prompted them to grow at an unsustainable rate. Many insurers of last resort are bleeding money at … Continue reading →