Executive Summary One of the United States’ main goals for the 2026 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review is to open the supply-managed Canadian dairy market. This has been a continuous objective of Washington’s for decades; since 2020, inroads have been achieved, but the scope of such market openings seems unlikely to change in the contemporary geopolitical situation. For these … Continue reading
Executive Summary Mercosur and the European Union have signed a sweeping free trade agreement twenty-six years in the making; that same month, Argentina signed its own bilateral trade deal with the United States. Despite the optimism surrounding the EU deal, Mercosur is still hamstrung by institutional limitations and diverging member interests, preventing further integration. Given this, U.S. trade policymakers are apt to treat Mercosur members as the individual … Continue reading
Executive Summary: President Trump’s frequently changing tariffs increased uncertainty for many businesses owners. This uncertainty could potentially damage the economy by reducing investment and new research and development processes. Polymarkets allow anyone to bet on an outcome by buying a yes share or a no share, with the price of a yes share corresponding to … Continue reading
Executive Summary President Trump aims to rebalance global trade by imposing tariffs and welcoming a weaker dollar because he views the U.S.’ large trade deficit as evidence of unfair trade practices. However, shrinking the trade deficit will shrink the capital account surplus that balances it, thereby weakening the dollar as foreign investors move away from … Continue reading
An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading
Executive Summary The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Chair Stephen Miran stated on March 25th he does not believe there is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending in recent years. Miran says this after a 9.76 percent decrease in consumer sentiment from February to March, marking the largest drop since January 2021, … Continue reading
Yesterday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed retaliatory tariffs on 128 U.S. products totaling $3 billion “in order to safeguard China’s interests and balance the losses caused by the U.S.” The tariffs, initially threatened in March, are the Chinese response to the Section 232 measures on steel and aluminum imposed by President Trump earlier that … Continue reading
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