Category Archives: Fiscal policy

America / Debt / Economy / Fiscal Cliff / Fiscal policy / Politics / Tariffs / Taxes / Trade / U.S. Domestic Policy

Recession Risk in 2025: A Weighted Logit Model with Policy Insights

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An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading →

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.
Debt / Economy / Fiscal policy / Trade

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.

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Executive Summary Introduction Government deficits and the trade balance have seemed to fluctuate in tandem over time. This has given rise to theories connecting the two deficits to explain their relationship. U.S. fiscal deficits have ballooned in recent years, bringing renewed attention to the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and applying it to advanced economies. Modeling … Continue reading →

Tax / Taxes

The Possible Effects of Pillar Two Taxation on the United States

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Executive Summary  Introduction  The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) proposed a two-pillar international taxation agreement aimed at taxing digital companies and reducing profit shifting. Pillar two aims to create a minimum international corporate tax of 15% on multinational companies that bring in revenue of over €750m a year ($810 million). This tax can … Continue reading →

Fiscal policy

The Employee Retention Tax Credit and Its Current State 

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Executive Summary  Introduction  In 2020, the Employee Retention Tax Credit (ERTC) was passed under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) as a refundable tax credit intended to incentivize businesses to maintain their employment levels throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. The ERTC was extended to December 2021 by the Consolidates Appropriations Act of … Continue reading →

Culture / Economy / Fiscal policy / Politics / Regulation

Unlocking Transparency: The FTC’s Battle Against Hidden Fees

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Executive Summary Introduction Consumers have become victims of deceptive pricing in various industries, notably in the ticketing and hotel sector. Firms have been using these practices known as  “price dipping”  or “bait and switch” pricing where mandatory fees are not disclosed until checkout significantly increasing the total cost without knowing the purpose of the fees. … Continue reading →

America / Economy / Fiscal policy / Politics / Presidency

President Biden and the State of Inflation

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Executive Summary  Last week, President Biden outlined his plan to counter inflation as the rate rises to around 7%  The President placed the blame of inflation on rising prices in a myriad of sectors including motor vehicles, prescription drugs, energy, and childcare  His solutions include programs to cut costs as well as protect wages by … Continue reading →

Economy / Fiscal policy / Tax / Taxes

Tax Cut-Implications for Behavioral Economics

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Richard H. Thaler, professor of behavioral science and economics at the University of Chicago, won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences this year “for his contributions to behavioral economics.” This is a relatively new field that combines the idea of psychology and economics. Standard economic models assume that humans are rational actors. However, behavioral economists … Continue reading →