Aryan Mirchandani Executive Summary Introduction Historically, only a few technological innovations have created anticipation that rivals the likes of artificial intelligence, which has catapulted the first phase of the new productivity revolution. Proponents of AI argue that it will streamline workflows, enhance decision-making, and unlock rapid efficiencies across wide-ranging industries. The Trump Administration is making … Continue reading
Climate Insurance Crisis: Extreme Weather Events Pose Threats to Housing Market
Insurance companies are reacting to the increase in climate change-related natural disasters by raising premiums and withdrawing coverage from high-risk areas. Continue reading
Treasury Outlines OBBB Tax Implementation as Compliance Costs Remain Elevated
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY• Department of the Treasury briefed House of Representatives lawmakers on the schedule for rolling out tax provisions of the One, Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBB).• Internal Revenue Service (IRS) paperwork data show that core returns and schedules tied to these provisions require 3.5 billion hours and over $139 billion annually in compliance costs.• Compliance … Continue reading
Betting on Trade: Prediction Markets & Tariff Uncertainty
Executive Summary: On February 1st, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. Two days later, Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on these trade threats. Since then, Trump has announced a myriad of tariffs, many of which he has paused or completely revoked in the following days. … Continue reading
Trump’s policies will increase home prices in a long-suffering housing market
Executive Summary Introduction There is a housing supply shortage in the United States which is skyrocketing home prices. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor reached 64 for the total U.S. market in May 2025. This is the lowest number on record and well below 100, the benchmark for “affordable.” In January … Continue reading
The GENIUS Act Should Apply to Yield-Bearing Stablecoins As Well
Note this post was written July 11, 2025 and does not reflect subsequent developments. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION During the Biden administration, the SEC cracked down on cryptocurrencies by asserting that all tokens—regardless of their function—were unregistered securities. This aggressive stance left crypto issuers and exchanges in regulatory limbo. The SEC refused to issue clear rules … Continue reading
Stablecoin Issuers as a Growing Class of Treasury Buyers: Implications and Risks
Executive Summary Introduction Congress’ recent passage of the GENIUS Act, the first significant regulatory framework for stablecoins, opens the door for increased crossover between traditional finance and cryptocurrency, or decentralized finance. The law sets a framework for future stablecoin regulation and prohibits interest-bearing stablecoins and prevents big tech and retail firms from issuing stablecoins without … Continue reading
The Costs of Submarine Cable Disruptions to the United States
Executive Summary Introduction The buffer while you are binge-watching Netflix may be due to the disruption of submarine cables, which lie on the bottom of the sea floor. Submarine cables form the backbone of global digital and energy infrastructure, carrying 95% of international data traffic and supporting offshore energy operations. These cables are typically owned … Continue reading
Regulating in the Dark: eSLR Reform Without Precedent
A June 27 joint proposal by the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC to lower the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR), a capital constraint on large banks, aims to remove regulatory disincentives to Treasury security intermediation. While myriad studies and analyses conclude that the eSLR disincentivizes intermediation, removing these constraints equally benefits competing low-risk activities that may offer higher returns. Banks may deploy freed capital toward higher-yielding activities rather than Treasury intermediation, potentially undermining the rule’s intended purpose. Continue reading
The Trade-Off Behind the Trade Deficit
Executive Summary Introduction President Trump has long called for the U.S. to impose higher tariffs to reduce the trade deficit, which he has declared a national emergency. His administration announced unprecedented unilateral tariffs to reverse what it alleges are unfair trade practices. This strategy ignores the accounting principle known as the balance of payments: The … Continue reading
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