Note this post was written July 11, 2025 and does not reflect subsequent developments. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION During the Biden administration, the SEC cracked down on cryptocurrencies by asserting that all tokens—regardless of their function—were unregistered securities. This aggressive stance left crypto issuers and exchanges in regulatory limbo. The SEC refused to issue clear rules … Continue reading
Category Archives: Politics
‘Golden share’ of U.S. Steel extends president’s reach into the private sector
Executive Summary Introduction On June 18, the Japanese firm Nippon Steel finalized a “historic partnership” with U.S. Steel (USS), acquiring the company for nearly $15 billion. This came after years of Biden and then Trump blocking the purchase due to national security concerns. The deal was finally allowed soon after President Trump was promised a … Continue reading
We Know Little About Post-2012 Oil Shocks
Note this post was written on June 17, 2025 and does not reflect subsequent events. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION High oil prices are top of mind these days for good reason. Brent oil prices have spiked more than 12% from $64 per barrel at the beginning of June to $72—mostly on fears of a Strait of … Continue reading
House Bill Includes Costly Reforms to Health Reimbursement Arrangements & Health Savings Accounts
Executive Summary Introduction On May 22, 2025, the House of Representatives passed a budget reconciliation bill – referred to as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” – which includes many key provisions relating to health care policy. While the proposed changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act garner more public attention, the additional changes … Continue reading
America / Debt / Economy / Fiscal Cliff / Fiscal policy / Politics / Tariffs / Taxes / Trade / U.S. Domestic Policy
Recession Risk in 2025: A Weighted Logit Model with Policy Insights
An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading
What will sector-specific tariffs cost?
Executive Summary Introduction Although President Trump has paused his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs for 90 days, he continues to threaten immanent sector-specific tariffs. The threatened sectors include pharmaceuticals, copper, lumber, semiconductors, chemicals and minerals, and energy, which combined account for roughly 20-percent of U.S. imports and include most products initially exempted from “Liberation Day” … Continue reading
A Drop in Consumer Sentiment: Economic Consequences and Policy Impacts
Executive Summary Introduction The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) provides research and analyses to the Executive branch to inform policy directives. CEA Chair Stepehen Miran appeared on CNBC on March 25th amid economic uncertainty, stating he does not believe there is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending. Consumer sentiment is tracked in detail by … Continue reading
Firing The Government: Inside the Largest Federal Workforce Reduction in U.S. History
Executive Summary Introduction Since the beginning of 2025, sweeping layoffs across the federal government have resulted in the dismissal of over 30,000 employees. The primary sector of federal workers facing cuts are those in their probationary period. Civil servants remain on probation for one year after they are hired, promoted, or demoted. While on probation, … Continue reading
Rethinking Occupational Licensing: Breaking Barriers
Executive Summary Introduction Occupational licensing reform has gained traction at both state and federal levels in recent years, geared towards eradicating unnecessary barriers that restrict employment opportunities. Laws regarding licensure cover nearly one-third of the U.S. workforce, creating barriers to entry rather than a safeguard for the public interest. Although licensing raises the wages … Continue reading
Medicare Telehealth Coverage: A Surviving Policy or Permanent Feature?
Executive Summary Introduction On March 15, 2025, President Trump signed a continuing resolution (CR) passed by Congress, which extends Medicare telehealth flexibilities through the end of September. These flexibilities –originally introduced via regulatory modifications and waivers in the wake of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency (PHE) – allow all Medicare beneficiaries the option to access … Continue reading
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