Note this post was written July 11, 2025 and does not reflect subsequent developments. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The US Senate passed the GENIUS Act on June 17, promising a stable regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers. The GENIUS Act excludes yield-bearing stablecoins from its regulatory framework. Citi estimates this would stifle stablecoin’s bull-case, medium-term market capitalization by … Continue reading
Category Archives: Politics
‘Golden share’ of U.S. Steel extends president’s reach into the private sector
Executive Summary Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel was blocked by both Biden and Trump until Nippon, a Japanese company, gave the federal government a “golden share” of U.S. Steel. The share gives the executive branch permanent control over U.S. Steel’s board of directors, job relocations, and capital investments. The executive influence over this deal … Continue reading
We Know Little About Post-2012 Oil Shocks
Note this post was written on June 17, 2025 and does not reflect subsequent events. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The pre-2012 consensus that increases in oil prices had a large negative effect on US output is no longer reliable. New evidence suggests oil price moves up to $115 per barrel will have an insignificant effect on total … Continue reading
House Bill Includes Costly Reforms to Health Reimbursement Arrangements & Health Savings Accounts
Executive Summary On May 22, 2025, the House of Representatives passed a budget reconciliation bill which includes many key provisions relating to health care policy – including broad reforms to Individual Coverage Health Reimbursement Arrangements (ICHRAs) and Health Savings Accounts (HSAs). The provisions included in the bill offer new tax credits, widen eligibility criteria for … Continue reading
America / Debt / Economy / Fiscal Cliff / Fiscal policy / Politics / Tariffs / Taxes / Trade / U.S. Domestic Policy
Recession Risk in 2025: A Weighted Logit Model with Policy Insights
An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading
What will sector-specific tariffs cost?
Executive Summary Although President Trump has paused his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs for 90 days, he continues to threaten imposing sector-specific tariffs in the near future. The threatened sectors include pharmaceuticals, copper, lumber, chemicals and minerals, semiconductors, and energy, which combined account for roughly 20-percent of U.S. imports. This research estimates that if the … Continue reading
A Drop in Consumer Sentiment: Economic Consequences and Policy Impacts
Executive Summary The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Chair Stephen Miran stated on March 25th he does not believe there is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending in recent years. Miran says this after a 9.76 percent decrease in consumer sentiment from February to March, marking the largest drop since January 2021, … Continue reading
Firing The Government: Inside the Largest Federal Workforce Reduction in U.S. History
Executive Summary In November 2024, the federal government employed over three million people, accounting for about 1.87 percent of the civilian workforce. Since the new administration took office in January, over 30,000 federal workers have been notified of termination, indicating that nearly one percent of the federal workforce has been cut. The proposed initiative to … Continue reading
Rethinking Occupational Licensing: Breaking Barriers
Executive Summary Occupational licensing, or licensure, is a form of government regulation that mandates a license to pursue a particular career for compensation, aiming to protect consumers from unsafe and low-quality services. There is a growing movement to reform licensure at both state and federal levels over concerns of a constrained labor supply, which reduces … Continue reading
Medicare Telehealth Coverage: A Surviving Policy or Permanent Feature?
Executive Summary On March 15, 2025, President Trump signed a continuing resolution, which included an extension of Medicare telehealth flexibilities through the end of September. Medicare telehealth coverage presents a myriad of benefits and drawbacks – with some studies suggesting greater access to care, potential cost-savings, and high quality of care coming at the expense … Continue reading
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