Tag Archives: Inflation

America / Debt / Economy / Fiscal Cliff / Fiscal policy / Politics / Tariffs / Taxes / Trade / U.S. Domestic Policy

Recession Risk in 2025: A Weighted Logit Model with Policy Insights

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An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading →

A Drop in Consumer Sentiment: Economic Consequences and Policy Impacts
America / Economy / Politics / Tariffs / U.S. Domestic Policy

A Drop in Consumer Sentiment: Economic Consequences and Policy Impacts

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Executive Summary Introduction The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) provides research and analyses to the Executive branch to inform policy directives. CEA Chair Stepehen Miran appeared on CNBC on March 25th amid economic uncertainty, stating he does not believe there is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending. Consumer sentiment is tracked in detail by … Continue reading →

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.
Debt / Economy / Fiscal policy / Trade

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.

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Executive Summary Introduction Government deficits and the trade balance have seemed to fluctuate in tandem over time. This has given rise to theories connecting the two deficits to explain their relationship. U.S. fiscal deficits have ballooned in recent years, bringing renewed attention to the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and applying it to advanced economies. Modeling … Continue reading →

Are the Elderly Hurt More by Inflation? A Glimpse Inside the Housing Market
Economy

Are the Elderly Hurt More by Inflation? A Glimpse Inside the Housing Market

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Executive Summary Introduction The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the change in prices in a typical consumers basket. The elderly tend to consume a different bundle of goods compared to the typical consumer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has introduced an experimental CPI, labeled CPI-E, to determine the relative importance of bundles for … Continue reading →

America / Economy / Fiscal policy / Politics / Presidency

President Biden and the State of Inflation

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Executive Summary  Last week, President Biden outlined his plan to counter inflation as the rate rises to around 7%  The President placed the blame of inflation on rising prices in a myriad of sectors including motor vehicles, prescription drugs, energy, and childcare  His solutions include programs to cut costs as well as protect wages by … Continue reading →