Recession Risk in 2025: A Weighted Logit Model with Policy Insights

Posted on April 30, 2025 by Max Tingom

An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading →

America / Economy / Politics / Tariffs / U.S. Domestic Policy

A Drop in Consumer Sentiment: Economic Consequences and Policy Impacts

Posted on April 2, 2025 by Max Tingom

Executive Summary The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Chair Stephen Miran stated on March 25th he does not believe there is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending in recent years. Miran says this after a 9.76 percent decrease in consumer sentiment from February to March, marking the largest drop since January 2021, … Continue reading →

Debt / Economy / Fiscal policy / Trade

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.

Posted on February 26, 2025 by Max Tingom

Executive Summary The relationship between fiscal deficits and trade balance in the United States is complex, and the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (REH) suggests two differing opinions on the relationship. The TDH postulates a positive connection between fiscal deficits and trade balance (net exports) while the REH argues there is no … Continue reading →

Economy

Are the Elderly Hurt More by Inflation? A Glimpse Inside the Housing Market

Posted on January 27, 2025 by Max Tingom

Executive Summary Recent CPI-U and CPI-E (age 62+) data suggests the elderly have experienced higher CPI growth over the same period, and the heightened rate is likely from a greater weight in the shelter component of CPI which accounts for the housing costs of those who both own and rent their properties. Homebuying trends have … Continue reading →

America / Economy / Fiscal policy / Politics / Presidency

President Biden and the State of Inflation

Posted on March 10, 2022 by Keith Bray

Executive Summary Last week, President Biden outlined his plan to counter inflation as the rate rises to around 7% The President placed the blame of inflation on rising prices in a myriad of sectors including motor vehicles, prescription drugs, energy, and childcare His solutions include programs to cut costs as well as protect wages by … Continue reading →

Culture / Economy

Why New Billionaires Are Turning To Art

Posted on November 19, 2013 by Nicholas Glueckler • 1 Comment

Investing in art is not something for the common man, not even most millionaires. The decision to invest in art is not for someone who is trying to make a quick buck and put it towards their retirement; a bidder at highbrow auctions, spending over $100 million on paintings, is a different breed of investor. … Continue reading →

Economy / Politics

The Fed for Monetary Policy Noobs

Posted on July 12, 2013 by Ben Hughes

Power is a funny thing in Washington. It can certainly be argued that real power in Washington lies beneath the dome of the Capitol, or within the iron gates of the White House, or even in the chambers underneath the basketball hoops of the top floor of the Supreme Court building. But perhaps the most … Continue reading →

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Tag Archives: Inflation