Executive Summary: In response to the Chinese government’s threated export controls on rare earth minerals, the Trump administration has signed frameworks for cooperation on rare earth mining and processing with several countries. Almost all of these frameworks specifically mention price floors and other pricing controls as a potential policy tool. Though China is certainly engaging … Continue reading
Tag Archives: Politics
Money Supply and the Current Account: Testing the Predictions of the AA-DD Model
Executive Summary: Policymakers have increased attention to current account deficits. Though experts debate whether current account deficits negatively impact the economy, many have also put forward theories regarding the influence of money supply on the current account. The classic AA-DD model predicts that in the short term, an increase in money supply should result in … Continue reading
The Impact of AI Efficiency Gains on National Debt and Gross Domestic Product
Aryan Mirchandani Executive Summary The recent AI boom has prompted policymakers to forecast exponential GDP growth in the near term, easing pressure on officials to act against rising national debt levels. The Trump Administration has utilized the AI efficiency boom to continue large levels of fiscal spending, as it implores that this boom will decrease … Continue reading
Betting on Trade: Prediction Markets & Tariff Uncertainty
Executive Summary: President Trump’s frequently changing tariffs increased uncertainty for many businesses owners. This uncertainty could potentially damage the economy by reducing investment and new research and development processes. Polymarkets allow anyone to bet on an outcome by buying a yes share or a no share, with the price of a yes share corresponding to … Continue reading
Trump’s policies will increase home prices in a long-suffering housing market
Executive Summary Housing in the United States reached a new low in terms of affordability in May 2025, according to The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor, largely because of a lack of supply in the housing market. President Trump’s main policy strategies, raising tariffs and decreasing the immigrant population in the … Continue reading
The Trade-Off Behind the Trade Deficit
Executive Summary President Trump aims to rebalance global trade by imposing tariffs and welcoming a weaker dollar because he views the U.S.’ large trade deficit as evidence of unfair trade practices. However, shrinking the trade deficit will shrink the capital account surplus that balances it, thereby weakening the dollar as foreign investors move away from … Continue reading
‘Golden share’ of U.S. Steel extends president’s reach into the private sector
Executive Summary Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel was blocked by both Biden and Trump until Nippon, a Japanese company, gave the federal government a “golden share” of U.S. Steel. The share gives the executive branch permanent control over U.S. Steel’s board of directors, job relocations, and capital investments. The executive influence over this deal … Continue reading
What will sector-specific tariffs cost?
Executive Summary Although President Trump has paused his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs for 90 days, he continues to threaten imposing sector-specific tariffs in the near future. The threatened sectors include pharmaceuticals, copper, lumber, chemicals and minerals, semiconductors, and energy, which combined account for roughly 20-percent of U.S. imports. This research estimates that if the … Continue reading
Firing The Government: Inside the Largest Federal Workforce Reduction in U.S. History
Executive Summary In November 2024, the federal government employed over three million people, accounting for about 1.87 percent of the civilian workforce. Since the new administration took office in January, over 30,000 federal workers have been notified of termination, indicating that nearly one percent of the federal workforce has been cut. The proposed initiative to … Continue reading
How Biden Helped to Create Trump’s Unilateral Trade Policy Process
Executive Summary The second Trump Administration has used more executive power than most previous administrations when creating trade law. President Biden also used historically strong executive authority when making trade law, including his Section 232 tariffs, emergency export restrictions, and CFIUS capital outflow clamps. The resulting new bipartisan consensus on using executive authority to make … Continue reading
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