Category Archives: Politics

America / Debt / Economy / Fiscal Cliff / Fiscal policy / Politics / Tariffs / Taxes / Trade / U.S. Domestic Policy

Recession Risk in 2025: A Weighted Logit Model with Policy Insights

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An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading →

Politics

What will sector-specific tariffs cost?

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Executive Summary  Introduction  Although President Trump has paused his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs for 90 days, he continues to threaten immanent sector-specific tariffs. The threatened sectors include pharmaceuticals, copper, lumber, semiconductors, chemicals and minerals, and energy, which combined account for roughly 20-percent of U.S. imports and include most products initially exempted from “Liberation Day” … Continue reading →

A Drop in Consumer Sentiment: Economic Consequences and Policy Impacts
America / Economy / Politics / Tariffs / U.S. Domestic Policy

A Drop in Consumer Sentiment: Economic Consequences and Policy Impacts

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Executive Summary Introduction The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) provides research and analyses to the Executive branch to inform policy directives. CEA Chair Stepehen Miran appeared on CNBC on March 25th amid economic uncertainty, stating he does not believe there is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending. Consumer sentiment is tracked in detail by … Continue reading →

Firing The Government: Inside the Largest Federal Workforce Reduction in U.S. History   
Politics

Firing The Government: Inside the Largest Federal Workforce Reduction in U.S. History   

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Executive Summary   Introduction   Since the beginning of 2025, sweeping layoffs across the federal government have resulted in the dismissal of over 30,000 employees. The primary sector of federal workers facing cuts are those in their probationary period. Civil servants remain on probation for one year after they are hired, promoted, or demoted. While on probation, … Continue reading →

Rethinking Occupational Licensing: Breaking Barriers
Politics

Rethinking Occupational Licensing: Breaking Barriers

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Executive Summary  Introduction   Occupational licensing reform has gained traction at both state and federal levels in recent years, geared towards eradicating unnecessary barriers that restrict employment opportunities. Laws regarding licensure cover nearly one-third of the U.S. workforce, creating barriers to entry rather than a safeguard for the public interest. Although licensing raises the wages … Continue reading →

Medicare Telehealth Coverage: A Surviving Policy or Permanent Feature?
Politics

Medicare Telehealth Coverage: A Surviving Policy or Permanent Feature?

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Executive Summary  Introduction  On March 15, 2025, President Trump signed a continuing resolution (CR) passed by Congress, which extends Medicare telehealth flexibilities through the end of September. These flexibilities –originally introduced via regulatory modifications and waivers in the wake of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency (PHE) – allow all Medicare beneficiaries the option to access … Continue reading →

Impact of Retail Electricity Deregulation on Consumer Prices: A Difference-in-Difference Approach
Energy / Environmental Regulation / Politics / Regulation / U.S. Domestic Policy

Impact of Retail Electricity Deregulation on Consumer Prices: A Difference-in-Difference Approach

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Executive Summary Introduction Electricity has become the most fundamental commodity in the United States. Its growing influence underpins nearly every major industry. It powers homes, infrastructure, and manufacturing. Innovation and technological development for the entire economy depends on efficient and reliable energy transmission.  Utilities markets in the U.S. have historically been viewed as natural monopolies. … Continue reading →

The Social Cost of Carbon: The Politicization of a Metric 
Politics

The Social Cost of Carbon: The Politicization of a Metric 

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Executive Summary  Introduction  On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed Executive Order (EO) 14154, titled “Unleashing American Energy,” which restored the process of federal land and water leasing for oil and natural gas production. The order promises these changes will encourage energy exploration while further establishing American dominance in the energy production market, decreasing … Continue reading →

Hiding Medical Debt Won’t Cure the Problem
Politics

Hiding Medical Debt Won’t Cure the Problem

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY  INTRODUCTION   Effective on March 17, 2025, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) will amend Regulation V, which implements provisions from the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA). This rule will place a “restriction on sharing of medical information,” between patients, health care providers, and credit stakeholders. In essence, this rule will prevent the sharing … Continue reading →