Executive Summary Introduction On January 17th, 2026, Mercosur—a South American customs union comprising Argentina, Bolivia (partial-member), Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay—signed a landmark free trade agreement with the European Union. The deal is slated to remove around $4.8 billion in tariffs between the two economic blocs, leading to an estimated 39 percent annual growth in EU exports to Mercosur (from $72 billion in 2024 goods export) and the elimination of EU duties … Continue reading
Executive Summary: On February 1st, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. Two days later, Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on these trade threats. Since then, Trump has announced a myriad of tariffs, many of which he has paused or completely revoked in the following days. … Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction President Trump has long called for the U.S. to impose higher tariffs to reduce the trade deficit, which he has declared a national emergency. His administration announced unprecedented unilateral tariffs to reverse what it alleges are unfair trade practices. This strategy ignores the accounting principle known as the balance of payments: The … Continue reading
An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) provides research and analyses to the Executive branch to inform policy directives. CEA Chair Stepehen Miran appeared on CNBC on March 25th amid economic uncertainty, stating he does not believe there is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending. Consumer sentiment is tracked in detail by … Continue reading
Yesterday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed retaliatory tariffs on 128 U.S. products totaling $3 billion “in order to safeguard China’s interests and balance the losses caused by the U.S.” The tariffs, initially threatened in March, are the Chinese response to the Section 232 measures on steel and aluminum imposed by President Trump earlier that … Continue reading
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