Executive Summary: On February 1st, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. Two days later, Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on these trade threats. Since then, Trump has announced a myriad of tariffs, many of which he has paused or completely revoked in the following days. … Continue reading
Category Archives: Trade
The Trade-Off Behind the Trade Deficit
Executive Summary Introduction President Trump has long called for the U.S. to impose higher tariffs to reduce the trade deficit, which he has declared a national emergency. His administration announced unprecedented unilateral tariffs to reverse what it alleges are unfair trade practices. This strategy ignores the accounting principle known as the balance of payments: The … Continue reading
America / Debt / Economy / Fiscal Cliff / Fiscal policy / Politics / Tariffs / Taxes / Trade / U.S. Domestic Policy
Recession Risk in 2025: A Weighted Logit Model with Policy Insights
An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading
Debt / Economy / Fiscal policy / Trade
The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.
Executive Summary Introduction Government deficits and the trade balance have seemed to fluctuate in tandem over time. This has given rise to theories connecting the two deficits to explain their relationship. U.S. fiscal deficits have ballooned in recent years, bringing renewed attention to the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and applying it to advanced economies. Modeling … Continue reading
Supply Shortages, High Prices, and Carbon Emissions: The Result of Tariffs on Chinese EVs
Executive Summary Introduction In a speech addressing the United Auto Workers (UAW) on November 9, 2023, President Biden accused China of being “determined to dominate the electric vehicle market by using unfair trade practices,” and promising to “not let them.” Neither the specifics of China’s “unfair trade practices” nor a strategy to combat them were explained. Biden … Continue reading
Economy / Technology / Trade
Big Businesses Ache and Small Businesses Suffer from Digital Protectionism
Executive Summary Introduction On October 25th, 2023, the USTR announced its withdrawal of WTO e-commerce proposals introduced in 2019 by the Trump administration. The original proposals advocated for the preservation of cross-border data flows, limiting the implementation of tariffs on digital trade. Additionally, they proposed restrictions on data localization and source code transfer requirements. In … Continue reading
Trade Barriers and Tariff Schedules: How the United States Risks Chinese Dominance in the Indo-Pacific
Executive Summary Indo-Pacific Trade Agreements The Indo-Pacific’s premier trade agreement is RCEP, which includes 15 countries spread throughout Southern Asia, Eastern Asia, and Oceania. RCEP is the world’s largest trade agreement on many fronts, boasting a 28 percent share of global goods trade in 2020. Source: Congressional Research Service RCEP’s primary goal is establishing a deeper … Continue reading
Potential Impacts of Trump’s Proposed 10% Tariff on SMEs
Executive Summary Introduction If elected President in 2024, Donald Trump has vowed to continue implementing protectionist policies in The White House. When speaking to Fox News in August, Trump affirmed his desire to impose a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports. The 2022 U.S. average tariff rate was 3.4 percent, so this proposal would substantially increase the cost … Continue reading
BRICS and Currency Diversification Challenge the Dollar
Executive Summary Introduction Since the inception of global trade, there has always been a dominant, trusted currency used to facilitate transactions between parties to avoid the double coincidence of wants associated with bartering. The U.S. dollar (USD) has been the premiere global currency since the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 where it was crowned in … Continue reading
“Strategic Autonomy”: Macron Splinters on Western Relations with China
Executive Summary Introduction On April 6th, 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen met with Chinese President Xi Jingping in his hometown of Guangzhou, China to discuss the bilateral relationship of Europe and China. The conversation centered on Sino-European trade relations, climate change and global solutions, the Ukraine war, and … Continue reading
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