Note this post was written on June 17, 2025 and does not reflect subsequent events. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The pre-2012 consensus that increases in oil prices had a large negative effect on US output is no longer reliable. New evidence suggests oil price moves up to $115 per barrel will have an insignificant effect on total … Continue reading
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The Tech Industry’s Transition to 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy
Executive Summary Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasing the technology sector’s electricity demand, with data center energy use projected to more than double by 2030. This limits tech companies’ ability to meet renewable energy targets that were originally pledged in a less energy-intensive market. Google and Microsoft have implemented 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy (CFE) in their facilities, … Continue reading
The Real Price of Clean Air: Evidence from Ozone Emissions and U.S. Manufacturing
When the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) revised current ozone emission standards in 2015, the agency’s regulatory impact analysis failed to quantify production losses for manufacturing. This study leverages the EPA’s attainment threshold to show that current ozone regulations lower revenues for manufacturing firms by an average of $277 million annually. Findings indicate that the EPA’s impact analysis underestimates realized economic effects, generating both economic and regulatory policy implications. Continue reading
Impact of AI on Healthcare
Executive Summary Artificial Intelligence is increasingly integrated into medical practice, combining traditional AI, such as machine learning, and generative AI to improve efficiency and decrease research costs. Abridge AI, Freed AI, GE’s Critical Care Suite, and AlphaFold are FDA approved HIPAA compliant tools which automate clinical documentation, aid diagnostic imaging, and accelerate biomedical research. Despite … Continue reading
Gridlock ahead? Driving innovation in the autonomous vehicle market
Executive Summary Driverless vehicles are at the cutting edge of automobile innovation, and their importance will only increase with time. While the United States is producing these vehicles competitively, an unclear regulatory environment threatens to stall technological progress. U.S. lawmakers and regulators should build certainty and spur innovation by establishing a national safety standard and … Continue reading
House Bill Includes Costly Reforms to Health Reimbursement Arrangements & Health Savings Accounts
Executive Summary On May 22, 2025, the House of Representatives passed a budget reconciliation bill which includes many key provisions relating to health care policy – including broad reforms to Individual Coverage Health Reimbursement Arrangements (ICHRAs) and Health Savings Accounts (HSAs). The provisions included in the bill offer new tax credits, widen eligibility criteria for … Continue reading
America / Debt / Economy / Fiscal Cliff / Fiscal policy / Politics / Tariffs / Taxes / Trade / U.S. Domestic Policy
Recession Risk in 2025: A Weighted Logit Model with Policy Insights
An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading
Direct Primary Care: A Divisive Yet Promising Development in Health Care
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Direct Primary Care (DPC), a subscription-based health care payment model for primary care services, is expanding in the U.S. with many favorable outcomes for both patients and providers. While the DPC model may improve quality, accessibility, and affordability of primary care, some detractors note its limitations in health care coverage and argue that … Continue reading
What will sector-specific tariffs cost?
Executive Summary Although President Trump has paused his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs for 90 days, he continues to threaten imposing sector-specific tariffs in the near future. The threatened sectors include pharmaceuticals, copper, lumber, chemicals and minerals, semiconductors, and energy, which combined account for roughly 20-percent of U.S. imports. This research estimates that if the … Continue reading
A Drop in Consumer Sentiment: Economic Consequences and Policy Impacts
Executive Summary The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) Chair Stephen Miran stated on March 25th he does not believe there is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending in recent years. Miran says this after a 9.76 percent decrease in consumer sentiment from February to March, marking the largest drop since January 2021, … Continue reading
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