Executive Summary: As part of his rationale for increasing tariffs, President Trump has focused on the U.S.’s trade deficits. Experts have long debated whether trade deficits matter; some argue a trade deficit simply signals that the region is attractive to foreign investment and has strong consumer demand, while others have instead contended that a trade … Continue reading
Aryan Mirchandani Executive Summary Introduction Historically, only a few technological innovations have created anticipation that rivals the likes of artificial intelligence, which has catapulted the first phase of the new productivity revolution. Proponents of AI argue that it will streamline workflows, enhance decision-making, and unlock rapid efficiencies across wide-ranging industries. The Trump Administration is making … Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction President Trump has long called for the U.S. to impose higher tariffs to reduce the trade deficit, which he has declared a national emergency. His administration announced unprecedented unilateral tariffs to reverse what it alleges are unfair trade practices. This strategy ignores the accounting principle known as the balance of payments: The … Continue reading
An overheating economy, high policy uncertainty, and declining consumer confidence pose recession risks of 53 percent as of April 2025. This paper employs a weighted logit model to aid policymakers in early intervention. Key indicators include consumer expenditure, yield curve, disposable income, and economic policy uncertainty, enhancing prediction accuracy in recession modeling. Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) provides research and analyses to the Executive branch to inform policy directives. CEA Chair Stepehen Miran appeared on CNBC on March 25th amid economic uncertainty, stating he does not believe there is a strong relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending. Consumer sentiment is tracked in detail by … Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction Electricity has become the most fundamental commodity in the United States. Its growing influence underpins nearly every major industry. It powers homes, infrastructure, and manufacturing. Innovation and technological development for the entire economy depends on efficient and reliable energy transmission. Utilities markets in the U.S. have historically been viewed as natural monopolies. … Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction Government deficits and the trade balance have seemed to fluctuate in tandem over time. This has given rise to theories connecting the two deficits to explain their relationship. U.S. fiscal deficits have ballooned in recent years, bringing renewed attention to the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and applying it to advanced economies. Modeling … Continue reading
Executive Summary Introduction The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the change in prices in a typical consumers basket. The elderly tend to consume a different bundle of goods compared to the typical consumer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has introduced an experimental CPI, labeled CPI-E, to determine the relative importance of bundles for … Continue reading
Executive Summary The impacts of Covid-19 will continue to elicit conversation about funding municipal broadband projects, so we must be aware of the long-term financial obligations associated with these programs. Chattanooga’s public broadband produces speeds much faster than the national average, but the economic responsibility looms far into the future. The financial structure of the Electric Power Board’s public broadband will be difficult to duplicate, so the Chattanooga program should not be used as … Continue reading
A new President is not the only change to come out of election day for Florida passed Amendment 2, the proposition to raise their minimum wage to $15 by 2026. The proposed schedule for the increase includes a jump to $10 an hour by September 2021, and a gradual further increase of a dollar per … Continue reading
Policy Interns 
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