Executive Summary Intra-BRICS trade was growing well before recent trade tensions, but U.S tariff escalations have accelerated efforts by BRICS+ members to diversify away from U.S.-centered trade. Trade among BRICS countries increased from $84 billion in 2003 to $1.17 trillion in 2024, at an annual rate of 13.3 percent—more than twice the pace of global … Continue reading
Tag Archives: Tariffs
Pax Moo-ica: Supply Management and the USMCA
Executive Summary One of the United States’ main goals for the 2026 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review is to open the supply-managed Canadian dairy market. This has been a continuous objective of Washington’s for decades; since 2020, inroads have been achieved, but the scope of such market openings seems unlikely to change in the contemporary geopolitical situation. For these … Continue reading
Betting on Trade: Prediction Markets & Tariff Uncertainty
Executive Summary: President Trump’s frequently changing tariffs increased uncertainty for many businesses owners. This uncertainty could potentially damage the economy by reducing investment and new research and development processes. Polymarkets allow anyone to bet on an outcome by buying a yes share or a no share, with the price of a yes share corresponding to … Continue reading
What will sector-specific tariffs cost?
Executive Summary Although President Trump has paused his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs for 90 days, he continues to threaten imposing sector-specific tariffs in the near future. The threatened sectors include pharmaceuticals, copper, lumber, chemicals and minerals, semiconductors, and energy, which combined account for roughly 20-percent of U.S. imports. This research estimates that if the … Continue reading
Playing Chicken with a Coyote: Why the U.S. has Less Leverage over Mexico than Trump Believes
Executive Summary Tomorrow, the United States will impose blanket 25% tariffs on Mexico, which has promised retaliation. Mexico has much stronger incentives to follow through with retaliation than they did during their first trade dispute with President Trump in 2018. They also have a large arsenal of economic tools at their disposal to put pressure … Continue reading
