Tag Archives: trade

“I Got a Rock”: Policy Gaps in American Critical Minerals Stockpiling 
America / National Security / Trade

“I Got a Rock”: Policy Gaps in American Critical Minerals Stockpiling 

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Executive Summary  Throughout 2025 and 2026, China has leveraged its control over critical mineral supply chains, forcing the United States to the negotiating table; the resulting shortages caused disruptions in the production of goods from automobiles to computers.  In February 2026, the Trump Administration inaugurated Project Vault, a critical minerals stockpiling program intended to reduce exposure to foreign-induced supply shocks through storing minerals for civilian use.  Although Project Vault is … Continue reading →

Wishing To Overhaul: American-Led WTO Reform Post-MC14 
Politics

Wishing To Overhaul: American-Led WTO Reform Post-MC14 

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Executive Summary  Last week, the World Trade Organization (WTO) concluded its 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) to plan the institution’s agenda for the next two years.  Reform was front-of-mind for all members, including the United States; its vision for the WTO focuses on constraining developing member privileges, ensuring leeway for security-based trade measures, and making member commitments more flexible in general, differing markedly from other proposals like that of … Continue reading →

Pax Moo-ica: Supply Management and the USMCA
Economy / Politics / Tariffs / Trade

Pax Moo-ica: Supply Management and the USMCA

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 Executive Summary  One of the United States’ main goals for the 2026 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review is to open the supply-managed Canadian dairy market.  This has been a continuous objective of Washington’s for decades; since 2020, inroads have been achieved, but the scope of such market openings seems unlikely to change in the contemporary geopolitical situation.  For these … Continue reading →

Mercosur: An Integration Problem 
Latin America / Tariffs / Trade

Mercosur: An Integration Problem 

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Executive Summary  Mercosur and the European Union have signed a sweeping free trade agreement twenty-six years in the making; that same month, Argentina signed its own bilateral trade deal with the United States.  Despite the optimism surrounding the EU deal, Mercosur is still hamstrung by institutional limitations and diverging member interests, preventing further integration.  Given this, U.S. trade policymakers are apt to treat Mercosur members as the individual … Continue reading →

Rotting in the Silo: The Chinese Factor in USMCA Agriculture
Politics

Rotting in the Silo: The Chinese Factor in USMCA Agriculture

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Executive Summary Last month Canada and China reached a deal to reduce Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in return for lower Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola products; this agreement reflects the pragmatic pivot North America has taken toward the Chinese agricultural market.   The Trump Administration’s threat of 100 percent retaliatory tariffs on Canadian imports if a deal goes through has created unnecessary conflict with Ottawa.  U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) Agreement partners must realize their shared interests in dealing with Beijing and, in one form or another, coordinate … Continue reading →

Politics

Price Controls and Critical Minerals: Understanding the U.S.’s Rare Earth Economic Policies 

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Executive Summary:  In response to the Chinese government’s threated export controls on rare earth minerals, the Trump administration has signed frameworks for cooperation on rare earth mining and processing with several countries.  Almost all of these frameworks specifically mention price floors and other pricing controls as a potential policy tool.  Though China is certainly engaging … Continue reading →

Money Supply and the Current Account: Testing the Predictions of the AA-DD Model
Politics

Money Supply and the Current Account: Testing the Predictions of the AA-DD Model

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Executive Summary:  Policymakers have increased attention to current account deficits. Though experts debate whether current account deficits negatively impact the economy, many have also put forward theories regarding the influence of money supply on the current account.  The classic AA-DD model predicts that in the short term, an increase in money supply should result in … Continue reading →

How Biden Helped to Create Trump’s Unilateral Trade Policy Process
Politics

How Biden Helped to Create Trump’s Unilateral Trade Policy Process

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Executive Summary The second Trump Administration has used more executive power than most previous administrations when creating trade law. President Biden also used historically strong executive authority when making trade law, including his Section 232 tariffs, emergency export restrictions, and CFIUS capital outflow clamps.  The resulting new bipartisan consensus on using executive authority to make … Continue reading →

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.
Debt / Economy / Fiscal policy / Trade

The Twin Deficit Hypothesis: An Analysis of the U.S.

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Executive Summary The relationship between fiscal deficits and trade balance in the United States is complex, and the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (REH) suggests two differing opinions on the relationship.  The TDH postulates a positive connection between fiscal deficits and trade balance (net exports) while the REH argues there is no … Continue reading →