Executive Summary “Dark shipping” practices weaken the effectiveness of economic sanctions and create significant environmental, humanitarian, and geopolitical risks. The “shadow fleet” transported approximately 3.7 billion barrels of oil in 2025, representing nearly 7 percent of global crude oil flows. These vessels allow sanctioned countries to circumvent sanctions, preserve billions of dollars in export revenue, … Continue reading
Tag Archives: china
“I Got a Rock”: Policy Gaps in American Critical Minerals Stockpiling
Executive Summary Throughout 2025 and 2026, China has leveraged its control over critical mineral supply chains, forcing the United States to the negotiating table; the resulting shortages caused disruptions in the production of goods from automobiles to computers. In February 2026, the Trump Administration inaugurated Project Vault, a critical minerals stockpiling program intended to reduce exposure to foreign-induced supply shocks through storing minerals for civilian use. Although Project Vault is … Continue reading
Mercosur: An Integration Problem
Executive Summary Mercosur and the European Union have signed a sweeping free trade agreement twenty-six years in the making; that same month, Argentina signed its own bilateral trade deal with the United States. Despite the optimism surrounding the EU deal, Mercosur is still hamstrung by institutional limitations and diverging member interests, preventing further integration. Given this, U.S. trade policymakers are apt to treat Mercosur members as the individual … Continue reading
Rotting in the Silo: The Chinese Factor in USMCA Agriculture
Executive Summary Last month Canada and China reached a deal to reduce Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in return for lower Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola products; this agreement reflects the pragmatic pivot North America has taken toward the Chinese agricultural market. The Trump Administration’s threat of 100 percent retaliatory tariffs on Canadian imports if a deal goes through has created unnecessary conflict with Ottawa. U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) Agreement partners must realize their shared interests in dealing with Beijing and, in one form or another, coordinate … Continue reading
Price Controls and Critical Minerals: Understanding the U.S.’s Rare Earth Economic Policies
Executive Summary: In response to the Chinese government’s threated export controls on rare earth minerals, the Trump administration has signed frameworks for cooperation on rare earth mining and processing with several countries. Almost all of these frameworks specifically mention price floors and other pricing controls as a potential policy tool. Though China is certainly engaging … Continue reading
Betting on Trade: Prediction Markets & Tariff Uncertainty
Executive Summary: President Trump’s frequently changing tariffs increased uncertainty for many businesses owners. This uncertainty could potentially damage the economy by reducing investment and new research and development processes. Polymarkets allow anyone to bet on an outcome by buying a yes share or a no share, with the price of a yes share corresponding to … Continue reading
The Trade-Off Behind the Trade Deficit
Executive Summary President Trump aims to rebalance global trade by imposing tariffs and welcoming a weaker dollar because he views the U.S.’ large trade deficit as evidence of unfair trade practices. However, shrinking the trade deficit will shrink the capital account surplus that balances it, thereby weakening the dollar as foreign investors move away from … Continue reading
What will sector-specific tariffs cost?
Executive Summary Although President Trump has paused his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs for 90 days, he continues to threaten imposing sector-specific tariffs in the near future. The threatened sectors include pharmaceuticals, copper, lumber, chemicals and minerals, semiconductors, and energy, which combined account for roughly 20-percent of U.S. imports. This research estimates that if the … Continue reading
China / Labor Force / Politics
How Does China Define Labor Relations in Rising Car-Hailing Services?
On June 28, the Chinese Ministry of Transportation issued a new regulation declaring that online car-hailing services in China can operate lawfully, which took effect on Nov. 1. In China, strict governmental rules repeatedly trip up local and foreign internet companies. Before this new regulation, local governments in major cities restricted the registration and use … Continue reading
Next Steps for the U.S. in the South China Sea
The recent FONOP has paved the way for the U.S.’ next move, which should be beginning preparations for securing an internationally recognized agreement to settle the Spratly Island issue once and for all. Continue reading
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